Picture this: the year is 2030, you’re at your high school reunion. You run into an old friend who is now a doctor, he introduces you to his supermodel wife. You turn around and recognize the class clown, he is now an extremely successful stand up comedian. That one kid you used to bully for playing with legos at lunch? He’s now an architect. You look around at all these people who did so much more with their lives than you. At first you feel shame, but then you remember that you successfully predicted the 2024 March Madness champion and won all your bracket challenges. You are overcome with a feeling of worth and satisfaction as you look over all your inferiors. If you want to make this a reality, here are some teams that I think have a pretty good chance of winning this year, even though they are not 1 seeds.
Creighton
Creighton is a team that is not new to the NCAA tournament, this being their ninth appearance since 2012. The Bluejays have two big advantages this year that make me believe they will make a run in the tournament. The first advantage is that they are in the Midwest, which is a pretty weak region of the bracket. Purdue, the 1 seed in the Midwest, has a history of underperforming in the NCAA tournament. Last year they were the second 1 seed in history to lose to a 16 seed. They are definitely the preferable 1 seed to have in your region compared to Houston and UConn. The 2 seed is Tennessee, who admittedly has a good defense, but played some weak basketball towards the end of the season. Their final 2 games of the season were both home losses to Kentucky and Mississippi State respectively. Creighton has a high powered offense that will be able to compete with the Vols defense, if these two teams were to meet in the Sweet 16, I’m going with Creighton. After that we have the 4 seed Kansas who is missing their leading scorer for the whole tournament, and the 5 seed Gonzaga who hasn’t been a threat in the tournament for years. I see no reason why Creighton isn’t poised to beat any of these teams and advance to the final four. This brings me to my next advantage the Bluejays have: They play a very difficult regular season schedule. This year, Creighton won regular season games against Nebraska, Alabama, Marquette, and UConn. They have played in the big games, they will be able to compete with the best of the best. That being said, if Creighton were to match up with a team like Houston in the Final Four, or UConn in the Finals, they will have just as good a chance at taking them down as any team in the tournament. Do not sleep on Creighton this year.
Auburn
Auburn ended their regular season hot, winning their final six games and beating teams like Mississippi State, Florida, and South Carolina along the way. The Tigers have a very interesting path to the Finals, as they were not blessed with an easy region like Creighton. Their most difficult games come in the Sweet 16, and Elite Eight. In the Sweet 16 they will most likely play UConn, the tournament favorite who has the number one offense in the country. Then in the Elite Eight they would likely play Iowa State, the team with, you guessed it, the number one defense in the country. This information might have you asking yourself “why would I pick this team to win?” A very good question with a very simple answer: Auburn is really really good. They remind me of UConn last year in that they are a 4 Seed that is clearly better than most 3 and 2 seeds.
They are the only team in the country that is top 10 in both offense and defense using KenPom rankings. That is exactly what you need to beat the number 1 offense and the number 1 defense in the country. Additionally, they have experience. They made the tournament the last two years and in 2019, Bruce Pearl coached a 5 seeded Tigers team to the Final Four. Ultimately, Auburn is a high risk high reward team. They may very well lose in the Sweet 16, but they have everything it takes to be champions. If you are still struggling to find motivation to make a risky pick, I have one last thing to say: I bet everyone at your high school reunion will have picked UConn or Houston this year. Don’t blend in.
