It’s that time of the week again. As we approach the weekend, it’s time to drop everything and really home in on the best NFL bets for this week. Forget the kids, forget work, forget any other previous commitment you made. This is what really matters. There’s not much more to say, let’s get into it.
Last Week’s Results
Last week’s article aged pretty well. I picked the Browns (+3) and they won outright. I picked the Bengals vs Chiefs to go over 47.5 points, they covered this handily. I also picked the Cowboys to cover (-6) and well… I don’t want to talk about it. Nonetheless, going ⅔ is profitable and I plan to do the exact same thing (if not better) this week. Here’s what I’ve got:
Titans (-2.5)
I am making this pick with the assumption that Will Levis will not have an unforced turnover down the stretch. Last week, the Colts failed to beat the Packers for two reasons: Undisciplined passing and poor run defense. The Titans are more likely to not have these weaknesses. As shaky as Levis has been, I do not expect him to play as bad as Richardson did last week.
The Packers, as expected, relied heavily on the run with Willis at quarterback. They ran the ball to 6 different players last week, combining for 261 yards. This will not happen against Tennessee. If Green Bay wants to score in this game, they are going to have to get well over 100 yards from Malik Willis through the air. Last week he threw for a career high 122 yards, and I don’t expect more from him this week. The Packers were able to mask their weaknesses last week in Green Bay. They will not have as much luck this week in Tennessee.
Jacksonville vs Buffalo Over 45.5
The Bills have scored 30+ points in each of their first two games and I don’t see what’s stopping them from reaching that mark again at home vs Jacksonville. Josh Allen has proved that you can give him just about any receiving corps and he will be able to run a successful offense. He does of course have to worry about his counterpart, Josh Hines-Allen, on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville has not had the same luck as Buffalo on the offensive side of the ball. They have yet to crack 20 points and currently sit at 0-2. Things will be different this week. If the Jags fall to 0-3, their playoff hopes are just about over. This team has their backs against the wall, and we will see them playing very aggressively on offense. Expect to see a lot of scoring on both sides in Buffalo this week.
Steelers (-1.5)
This game is going to be somewhat of a rock fight. Justin Herbert found his way onto the Chargers injury report. This is not good in a week they are going up against what has been the most ferocious defense in the league so far. The Steelers have allowed 8 points per game en route to their 2-0 start to the season. While the Chargers offense has exceeded expectations so far this year, this is by far their biggest challenge yet. If Herbert’s ankle injury impacts his mobility in the pocket at all, that is bad news for the Chargers. The Steelers defense feasted on a hobbling Kirk Cousins in Week 1. On the other side of the ball, Justin Fields has actually played pretty well with the offense he has. He hasn’t been perfect, but he will certainly be more difficult than the matchup the Chargers were gifted last week against Bryce Young. The Steelers really thrive with their running game, using the trio of Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Justin Fields. This game is certainly not the most exciting undefeated matchup we have seen. Nonetheless, the Steelers defense will be too much for the Chargers and they will improve to 3-0 on Sunday.
Following a ⅔ week I expect the success to keep rolling. I will be back next week to assess how I did. I wish everyone good luck on their bets. Enjoy the games, I know I will.
