As Sunday rapidly approaches we find ourselves putting down our work, grabbing an ice cold drink, and finding the best bets for the Week 4 slate. There are plenty of great value bets this week so let’s waste no time and get right into it:
Last Week’s Results:
We had another good showing in Week 3. The Steelers had no problem against the Chargers. They won by 10, covering the spread and advancing to 3-0 on the season. The Bills were kind enough to score 47 points against the Jags, covering the 45.5 point over/under all by themselves. Unfortunately, the Titans fell to the strong Packers defense, blocking me from a perfect week. Nonetheless, we are still 2-1-0 for the week and 4-2-0 on the season. Let’s go for another profitable week.
Arizona (-3.5)
The Cardinals and Commanders have been two of the most pleasantly surprising teams this season. Jayden Daniels has quickly established himself as one of the great young quarterbacks in the league. He has led the Commanders to a 2-1 start and the team has not punted since Week 1. This is an absurd stat for any team, but especially the Commanders. The Cardinals on the other hand are off to a 1-2 start. However, they have played just about the hardest schedule in the NFL, and they have held their own in every game. This is the best we’ve seen Kyler Murray play in years. You can tell he is really starting to create a connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. as well.
The result of this game will come down to defense. While Washington has looked promising as a whole, they have played a weak schedule and still allowed 33+ points in two of three games. Arizona will be the best offense they have played so far. There is not a single player in the Washington secondary who matches up well with Harrison Jr. Arizona will flip the script against Washington, as they will be the ones who aren’t punting.
Jacksonville (+6.5)
` Deep breath in. Deep breath out. Yes, I watched last week’s game. There is no denying that the 0-3 Jaguars have looked atrocious this season. That being said, I’m feeling pretty good about this one. Last week, the Texans struggled against the Vikings on both sides of the ball. They allowed four passing touchdowns to Sam Darnold, and 102 rushing yards to Aaron Jones. They also failed to get their ground game going at all, rushing for 38 total yards as a team. These woes are not to be ignored, and will carry on into Week 4.
As for Jacksonville, this will be their best offensive week yet. Perhaps the first time they will be able to break 20 points. The Jaguars’ keys to the game are establishing the run and controlling the pace of the game. If they get in a shootout with the Texans, they will lose. The Texans have better receivers and, if they focus on short yardage gains and breaking the Texans defense down, they will find success.
I do truly believe that the Jaguars will cover the spread in this game. However, if they don’t I will no longer be picking them for the rest of the season. They have one last chance to cover 6.5 points in what I expect to be a close divisional matchup.
Colts vs Steelers Under 40.5
The Steelers are off to their best start in recent memory. They are 3-0 and have allowed ten points or fewer in all three games. There are two reasons for this. First, the Steelers have an excellent defense full of veterans, led by TJ Watt. Second, they run a very slow paced, conservative offense. They do not have many explosive plays, they opt for consistent short yardage gains instead. This has worked for them.
This week, the Steelers face a new challenge. They are going up against Anthony Richardson, who can escape pressure and run. He is much more mobile than the QBs the Steelers have played so far: Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix, and an injured Justin Herbert. Unlike the Steelers, Richardson seeks out explosive plays. He has one of the strongest arms in the league. However, he has struggled with control, averaging two interceptions per game to start the season. I don’t like this matchup for Richardson. The Steelers defense is very smart, they will capitalize on his poor decision making.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers will mainly keep the ball on the ground with Fields, Harris, Warren and Patterson. This will be a slow-pace game with multiple turnovers, making the under an easy bet.
Well, I can’t say I have been upset with how the season has started with my predictions, but it would be nice to get a perfect week. Could this be the one? I will return next week to assess.
