The NFL gods have blessed us with another week of two Monday Night Football games. The first game sees Tyler Huntley make his Dolphins debut against a disgraced Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans. The other game is very interesting. The undefeated Seahawks travel to Detroit to face off against the 2-1 Lions. There are a lot of points to be scored so let’s talk about the best bets for tonight.
Tyreek Hill Over 50.5 Yards
Last week, Hill led the team in receiving with 3 receptions for 40 yards. Not great, but that was with Skylar Thompson who spent all game passing to his imaginary friends. Now, the Dolphins have upgraded from Thompson to ex-pro bowler Tyler Huntley. Huntley has plenty of starting experience with the Ravens and is a much better passer and decision maker than Thompson. All this to say: Hill will easily get over fifty receiving yards. He might do it in one play. I understand why this line is low, as there are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the Dolphins offense. Especially since they only scored three points last week. However, there is one thing that I am confident in: Mike McDaniels knows that if there is any chance for this offense to be successful following the loss of Tua, it needs to run through Hill. Tyreek’s explosiveness, combined with the volume he will see tonight makes this line too good to pass up.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
This line makes no sense to me. Gibbs has rushed for over 80 yards in his last two games. While David Montgomery has seen more rushes than Gibbs this season, Gibbs is heavily favored in the pass game. The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league and they rely on their running backs to maintain 2nd half leads. For the Lions, this is a home, prime time game against an undefeated team. They are going to stay true to their identity and run their offense through their ground game. Gibbs is another explosive player who is bound to break away for 20+ yards when given enough opportunities. I anticipate a high scoring game in Detroit with plenty of yards to go around. I am sure that at least 78 of those yards will belong to Gibbs.
Jackson Smith-Njigba Over 50.5 Yards
As a fantasy owner of both Tyreek Hill and JSN, it’s sad to see my first and seventh round pick have the same line for receiving yards. Nonetheless, I believe they will both exceed these lines, so I really can’t complain. JSN is quietly beginning to establish himself as the WR2 in Seattle. Lockett is still getting plenty of volume, but JSN is having a much bigger impact than he did last season. More importantly, I really like this matchup for JSN. Slot receivers have been cooking the Lions this season. Week 1 Cooper Kupp got 14 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. The next week Chris Godwin dealt similar damage, reeling in 7 receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks run a “pick your poison” kind of offense. When you take away the deep option from DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, JSN experiences much softer coverage. In a prime time game to remain undefeated, I got JSN making big plays all game and demolishing the 50.5 yard line that was set for him.
Alas, this is our last week with two Monday night games. It is also our last week without any byes. We will have to cherish all this football while we can. I’m looking forward to the games tonight, mainly the Lions. Hopefully we end the night 3/3. I will be back next week to assess.
