After a hectic Week 1, fantasy owners may be feeling many different emotions. Many may feel happy because they told all their friends that De’Von Achane would be more involved in the Dolphins passing game and they were right. Many may feel sad because they spent the whole offseason raving about how Jordan Love will be QB1 this year just for him to get injured in a semi-meaningless play at the end of the game. However, the most common emotion following Week 1 is always regret. Fantasy owners must face the gloomy reality that the “breakout” player they drafted in all 3 of their leagues is just not that good. However, Week 1 is often a poor indicator of the rest of the season. Many players that fantasy owners are regretting taking now will turn out to have great seasons. Now is the time to go out and trade for them while their value is as low as it will ever be.
Brandon Aiyuk
Following a dramatic offseason, Aiyuk started the season with a disappointing 2 receptions for 28 yards. Even worse, fellow star Christian McCaffrey did not play in this game, and yet Aiyuk saw a decrease in targets. Even though this is a really bad look for someone who was going in the 4th round of most fantasy drafts, there are a three things that are important to remember:
- Aiyuk was covered by Sauce Gardner. As a high-end WR2 in fantasy, you never want to score just 4.8 points. However, it does seem more excusable in the context that Aiyuk was guarded by the best cornerback in the NFL. Aiyuk has much more favorable matchups moving forward that he should be able to capitalize on.
- The 49ers ran the ball more than they passed it against the Jets. Aiyuk was simply not a big part of the game plan. Did he fail to capitalize on some of the few opportunities he got? Yes. Will he get more than 5 targets in the future? Absolutely. I expect to see much more from the Niners passing offense in their upcoming games against the Vikings and the Rams. A big concern surrounding Niners fantasy players is that all the great players on the offense will take away volume from each other. However, last year the Niners proved that their offense is good enough to support McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle (sometimes), and Aiyuk as viable fantasy options even though there are so many mouths to feed. I am confident this will remain true this year.
- The Niners just signed Aiyuk to a 4 year/$120,000,000 contract making him tied for the 5th highest paid receiver in the NFL. This offseason, the Niners front office thought long and hard about the team’s future with Aiyuk. While it did seem like they were looking to move on from him for a while, they ultimately decided that he is too important to the offense to let go. The Niners now have a vested interest in Aiyuk performing well. It would be a bad look for the whole front office to go through a very public contract disagreement and end up signing Aiyuk only to not use him.
Aiyuk is the high-end WR2 that he was drafted as, but his trade value is as low as it’s ever been. Now is the time to make a move and trade for Aiyuk before he returns to his normal self against the Vikings.
Caleb Williams
The Bears had a weird Week 1. The team won 24-17 thanks to some stellar play from the defense and special teams. Caleb Williams on the other hand had one of the worst debuts I’ve ever seen from a #1 overall pick. He went 14/29 for 93 yards and none of the drives resulted in touchdowns. Naturally, for a #1 overall pick in an offense that has high expectations, this appears to be a red flag. Many fantasy owners are beginning to wonder if anyone on this Bears offense can be trusted to produce consistently. Despite all these reasonable concerns, I have as much faith in this Bears offense as I did before the season started. Having faced the Titans, I find it much harder to use the “he was playing a great defense” excuse like I did with Aiyuk. I am willing to write this performance off as simply Week 1 jitters. We all saw what Williams was able to do in college, he was clearly the first overall pick for a reason. He also looked great in the preseason. With the Bears playing the Texans, Colts, and Rams in the coming weeks, they are poised to get in some shootouts. This whole Bears offense is undervalued after Week 1, Williams most of all. Target him for your team now or don’t come crying to me when he finishes as a top 10 fantasy QB.
Derrick Henry
Many fantasy owners were underwhelmed by Henry’s Week 1 performance against the Chiefs. While he did find his way into the end zone, he didn’t do much else, finishing with 13 rushes for 46 yards and 0 receptions. This year is going to look different for Henry. He is not going to see the 25+ carries per game that he got in Tennessee. He will get fewer carries and fewer yards with the Ravens. So why is he a good fantasy option? Touchdowns. I expect Henry to have a very similar season to 2016 LeGarette Blount (1,161 yards, 18 touchdowns). Once the Ravens get the ball inside the 5 yard line, all 22 players on the field know where the ball is going, and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it. It worked with Gus Edwards, it worked with Keaton Mitchell, it’s definitely going to work with Henry. Now, I’m not going to claim that Henry is about to have the best fantasy season of his career. However, I do think he was a second round pick for a reason and he will be a viable low-end RB1. Right now Henry owners are panicking over his lack of volume, but this is exactly what they should have expected. Take the opportunity to trade for him at low value now before he has his inevitable 2-touchdown game.
Building a good fantasy team goes far beyond the draft, and capitalizing on overreactions could lead to league-winning trades. NFL teams are still figuring out how to run their offenses successfully which is why it is important to be patient with your players who get off to a slow start. Many fantasy owners don’t understand that Week 1 is full of flukes. There has never been a better time to test out your league’s trade market and try to add another reliable player to your starting lineup for cheap. Expect to see a big shift in the public perception of many players following Week 2.
