It’s time to get surgical my friends. Today we are zooming in on each NFL game. We are grabbing our tweezers and picking out the highest value prop bets that Week 2 has to offer. Here are the winners:
Jameson Williams Over 47.5 Receiving yards
It appears that the books have not yet gotten the memo that Jameson Williams is now the clear cut WR2 on one of the most productive offenses in the league. Last week was not a fluke, we will see a career year from the former 12th overall pick. This pick is a no brainer for two reasons:
- Williams is an explosive player who is Goff’s favorite deep threat
- The Buccaneers secondary is banged up
This makes for the ideal circumstance for Williams to nail this over. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him cover it in one big play.
I don’t see Tampa Bay putting up much of a fight in this game. My biggest concern for this prop is that Detroit pulls ahead early with big plays from some of the other weapons on their offense and then they keep the ball on the ground for most of the second half. I’m willing to take the risk, Detroit should put up over 400 scrimmage yards on Sunday and I’m confident that at least 48 of those yards will be at the hands of Williams
Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions
With Puka Nacua out, get ready to see the Rams running their 2021 gameplan: get the ball to Cooper Kupp. I am expecting a huge game from Kupp, playing against a weak Cardinals defense. Staffod and Kupp have built a strong connection since Stafford arrived in LA in 2021. Last week was Kupp’s first time playing without Nacua since he was drafted in 2023. As expected, his volume went way up, reeling in 14 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Lions. Expect more of the same, Stafford and Kupp will dissect this Arizona defense all the way down the field. I like every prop bet surrounding Kupp for this game (receiving yards, to score a touchdown), but my favorite bet is playing it safe with receptions.
Mark Andrews Over 3.5 Receptions
I know, trust me.
The Ravens are not done with Mark Andrews. Sure, Isaiah Likely is emerging as a great receiving option for Lamar, but this does not mean they are going to simply discard one of the best tight ends in the league. Last game was a bad look for Andrews, he only saw two targets and was sidelined for some key moments down the stretch. Many people are quick to overreact to this. It is important to remember that the Ravens were playing from behind against the best team in the league, they had to improvise. They found success with Likely and they used that to their advantage. He was a better option than Andrews for that specific situation. I promise, there will be plays for Andrews in the game plan for Week 2. The Ravens will be hosting the Raiders in what is likely to be a much less competitive matchup than Week 1. This is the perfect opportunity for them to get their star tight end back in the mix. Setting the line at 3.5 is a major overreaction to one bad week.
Malik Willis Under 164.5 Passing Yards
To discover if this prop bet is right for you, all you have to do is ask yourself one question: Do you think this is the game Malik Willis breaks his career high passing yards in a game by 66? If you said no, congratulations! This is a great bet for you to make. Malik Willis has started three games in his career. His career high is 99 passing yards, and he averages 8.33 completions per game. I don’t want to disrespect Willis, he is certainly a talented runner and I think the Packers have a real chance to win on Sunday. There is just now way he surpasses 165 yards. Green Bay’s game plan will be to hand the ball off, run screen plays, end around’s to Jayden Reed, and RPO’s. There will be no deep game for the Packers until Jordan Love comes back. I understand that rooting for a quarterback to pass less than 165 yards is not necessarily a “fun” bet, but it is simply too good to pass up. Take it now while you can. They will fix this line by next week.
This is just about as surgical as it gets. Time to put down my scalpel, take my mask off, sit back, and enjoy the games.
